TAMPA, Fla. — Hurricane Helene continues to move toward Florida, and your preparations should be completed.
The impacts of Helene are being felt throughout the Tampa Bay area. Our biggest concern is the life-threatening storm surge, with water rising after the storm passes. For the Bay Area, we do NOT expect sustained hurricane-force winds, but we will see some gusts nearly that high later on Thursday.
Here's a timeline of when to expect impacts from Hurricane Helene.
Update Thursday, 1 p.m.:
Meteorologists Shay Ryan and Greg Dee said the track of Hurricane Helene shifted slightly eastward in the 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. Any shift will impact the area in and around the point of landfall, which is left to be determined later tonight. The movement of the center of the forecast track does not change any of the expected forecast for the Tampa Bay area other than possibly bringing some slightly stronger wind gusts to some coastal areas. Life-threatening storm surge continues to be the primary threat from Hurricane Helene for all of the coastal communities in the Tampa Bay area through the high tide cycle after midnight tonight.
Wind:
- When - Starting late Thursday Night through Friday
- Up to tropical storm force gusts along the coast and inland across the Nature Coast in the entire Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning areas.
Storm Surge and Inundation:
- When - Thursday into early Friday
- Life-threatening storm surge along the coast in the entire Storm Surge Warning areas
Heavy rains:
- When - Thursday into early Friday morning
- Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. Some flooding is possible in isolated areas.
Tornadoes:
- When - Thursday into early Friday morning
- There is a potential for a few tornadoes across the area.
What type of storm surge is possible with Helene?
The National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service are forecasting life-threatening storm surge from Helene and storm surge warnings are in place for almost the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.
Forecast Storm Surge Values
- Citrus County and northward– 15-20 feet
- Hernando and Pasco County – 8-15 feet
- Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties – 5-8 feet
- Sarasota County – 4-7 feet
When will wind gusts impact the Tampa Bay area most?
The National Weather Service is forecasting the following timeline for when tropical storm-force gusts will likely end across the area.
- Sarasota County – 7 p.m. Thursday
- DeSoto County – 6 p.m. Thursday
- Hardee County – 6 p.m. Thursday
- Highlands County – 6 p.m. Thursday
- Manatee County – 7 p.m. Thursday
- Pinellas County – 9 p.m. Thursday
- Pasco County – 9 p.m. Thursday
- Hillsborough County – 10 p.m. Thursday
- Polk County – 10 p.m. Thursday
- Hernando County – 12 a.m. Friday
- Citrus County – 3 a.m. Friday
NOTE: the worst of the gusts could depart as late as 10 p.m. to 3 a.m. in the area
When and where can we expect landfall of Helene?
The exact landfall isn’t known, but the forecast currently has the center of the eye making landfall somewhere north of Cedar Key after 10:30 p.m. Thursday as a Category 3 hurricane.
Here's what ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips has to say about Hurricane Helene:
Helene midday update:
1. As expected, a little nudge to the East. This doesn't change the impacts to the Bay Area weather. Helene will make landfall in the Big Bend this evening.
2. Surge has been, and continues to be the biggest threat to our weather. Sustained hurricane winds will stay West of our area. Hurricane winds extend 60 miles out. The eye will be at least a 100 miles West of our coastline. We will see winds of 40 to 60 along the coast late this afternoon and this evening. Less inland. A bit higher Citrus County.
3. Remember, the highest winds are in a VERY SMALL area within 10 miles of the eye. At this point, it looks to me like those winds will be to the East of Tallahassee.
4. I completely understand how stressful the appearance of last minute changes can be. I'm getting lots of questions about impacts for University of Florida if the track nudges East. The impacts haven't changed. The strongest winds will be NW of Gainesville.
5. This is not Ian. This storm will not take a drastic hook into the Bay Area. A subtle bump East would take this a bit farther away from Tallahassee, but not really impact the Tampa Bay Area any differently. If there were any noteworthy changes, I promise I'd let you know. Other than what I just mentioned, there haven't been.
6. Our team has you covered. Keep it right here for any updates and changes.
HURRICANE RESOURCES
Meteorologist Denis Phillips provides an update on Hurricane Helene.