The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting a "high" chance of a tropical disturbance developing in the Caribbean Sea.
But what does that mean for the Tampa Bay area?
Here are ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips' thoughts for Wednesday:
1. Overall, the 1st track from the NHC on the future Sara is promising. Definitely not set in stone, but promising. We all need a little bit of promise lately!
2. NHC admits this track is a "low confidence" track. Here's why. There is no center yet...at least no well-defined center. Until there is one, the exact track (and more importantly, future track) is impossible to predict.
3. Yesterday, we gave you 3 scenarios. The NHC currently has a track that could easily cause Sara to be obliterated in Central America. On the other hand, if it stays offshore longer, or ends up going a bit more North, it would keep some strength and would end of stronger in Florida. Bottom line, it's still a WEEK out. There IS no center yet. To put it simply, we still don't know exactly where this will go.
4. Models will flip-flop back and forth. I guarantee the GFS and Euro will have massive changes run to run until we get a fixed center and stronger steering currents. So, we just hang tight and keep watching it. But at the end of the day, I prefer to be a glass-is-half-full kind of guy and am happy to see this early track.
5. No, I'm not back to putting up my Christmas decorations yet, but I'm closer today than I was yesterday. That's a good start!
HURRICANE RESOURCES
Back-to-back storm events brought record storm surge, rainfall and winds to the Tampa Bay region. The question some are asking now isn’t where people should rebuild, but where we should let nature regain control.