TAMPA, Fla. — Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean and is moving north at 12 mph. According to the NHC, the system is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.
But what does that mean for the Tampa Bay area?
Here are ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips' thoughts from Monday evening:
- Rafael is primed to go through "rapid intensification" over the next 36 hours. It's expected to be a Cat 2 hurricane upon approach to the Cayman Islands and Cuba. on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Part of the Keys are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. I do NOT expect our area to be placed under any watches or warnings unless there is a dramatic (and unexpected) shift to the East.
- The NHC says their long-range forecast for this storm is "low confidence". Some models are trending West into Texas while others go into the panhandle. Here's one thing that is VERY important and VERY good. If these steering currents collapse, that means the storm will stay over the Gulf longer. That is USUALLY a bad thing. Not this time. High shear, dry air, and cooler water will weaken the storm. SO, the longer the storm is in the Gulf, the lower the impacts will be wherever landfall occurs.
- We have followers all over the Gulf Coast, so I'll update impacts and threats regardless of where Rafael makes landfall. Grand Cayman and Jamaica are gonna get some pretty nasty weather out of this Tuesday and Wednesday, but once the storm passes over Cuba, it WILL weaken.
- We've been through hell and back the past month. I'm guessing we're all OVER this nonsense and ready for a good cold front. Long-range models are hinting at just that the week before Thanksgiving. Hang in there. Only 51 days to Christmas.
Tracking the Tropics
Tracking the Tropics for Nov. 20