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Tropical disturbance in Gulf given 80% chance of development over next 7 days

Denis Phillips: Remember Rule #7
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TAMPA, Fla. — The Atlantic hurricane season hasn't been quite as busy as forecast, but it's far from over, and a new disturbance is grabbing forecasters' attention.

The National Hurricane Center gave the area being watched an 80% chance of development over the next seven days. Forecasters said, "Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico."

ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips has been tracking the area for a few days and said at this point, there's "absolutely nothing to freak out about."

"We're now within 5 days of potential landfall. Important to remember, the system still does not exist. Still, lots of agreement on a Florida landfall. Reality is, anywhere from Louisiana to Florida is still on the table, but yes, Florida has the highest likelihood of impact. Intensity is still 100% too early."

Tracking the Tropics with Denis Phillips

  1. Anyone along the Gulf coast could be impacted the end of next week. Historically though, these storms in late September/Early October often are pulled North/NE by a trough and start accelerating. So once we actually HAVE something to track, the job is easier.
  2. I still don't know if your flight or Disney trip will be canceled next weekend.
  3. At this point, all possibilities are on the table. Have a plan, just in case.
  4. Hopefully, if this develops, it will be Helene and not Isaac. We all know there's just something about those "I' storms.
  5. Rule #7. Absolutely nothing to freak out about...other than it's almost October and I still haven't put up my outdoor Halloween decorations yet.

HURRICANE RESOURCES

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