TAMPA, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center said a potential tropical cyclone nine has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to strengthen over the next few days.
On Tuesday at 8 a.m., the NHC said PTC #9 is about 150 miles west of Grand Cayman with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It is moving northwest at 9 mph.
According to the NHC, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
- Tampa Bay
- Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
- Englewood to Indian Pass
- Tampa Bay, including Citrus, Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas and Coastal Sarasota Counties
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Grand Cayman
- Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Dry Tortugas
- Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
- Flamingo to south of Englewood
- West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Philips said it "all boils down to where the low center is located Tuesday evening."
1. If it's over the Yucatan, panhandle landfall seems likely.
2. If it's in-between the Yucatan and Cuba a "Big Bend" landfall is likely.
3. If it's over Cuba, a track closer to our area will probably occur. We should have our answer by Tuesday evening.
If these tracks verify, we will probably not see sustained hurricane force winds in the Bay Area. Gusts along the coast, possibly, but sustained is unlikely. Surge is still a concern as some kind of coastal evacs seem likely on Tuesday. Of course, if the track is closer to us, that's another story entirely.
No real changes to our thinking.
HURRICANE RESOURCES
ABC Action News meteorologist Greg Dee provides an update on the developing tropical disturbance and its impacts on our area.