Colorado State University issued its annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and based on their forecasters' predictions, 2025 could end up being a lot like 2024.
Colorado State University forecasters are predicting that the Atlantic basin will have 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. In 2024, the Atlantic had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
The CSU forecast for 2024 was not far off, as it predicted 22 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
As the 2024 season was slightly above average, it was a particularly devastating hurricane season for the United States. The season featured back-to-back catastrophic impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Both hurricanes ranked among the 10 costliest in U.S. history.
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If Colorado State University's forecast holds true, the year would be above historical averages, but recent years have seen a stark uptick in tropical storm activity. From 1990-2019, the Atlantic averaged 14.4 named storms per year, with 7.2 becoming hurricanes and 3.2 becoming major hurricanes.
Forecasters believe warmer ocean waters coupled with favorable upper-level winds will contribute to an above-average season. The report indicates there is a better than 50% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline this year.
However, forecasters noted that there is some uncertainty heading into hurricane season, which begins June 1.
“Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. "While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically accompany our early April outlook.”
In the last decade, the Atlantic has averaged 17.9 named storms, with 8.2 becoming hurricanes and 3.8 becoming major hurricanes.
