As of the 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Milton is now forecast to be stronger at landfall (Cat 4) and the center of the track has shifted slightly back to the north. This sounds worse at face value than it actually is. The increase is only from a Cat 3 storm with 125 mph winds to a Cat 4 with 130 mph winds.
The numbers regarding impacts due to wind, surge, and rain totals don't really change because of this. All of the concerns & threats we've been talking about for days remain the same, a 5mph difference isn't a game changer.
The highest impacts have shifted slightly north again, but within the same range we've been watching it shift north and south for the last several days. Since we’ve been treating the whole cone of uncertainty as the area of potential landfall & highest impacts, all of this has been taken into consideration when planning for evacuations and preparations across our area.
For today, expect the coverage and intensity of rain to increase throughout the day. There will be a marginal threat of isolated tornadoes in the strongest bands moving across the area from time to time. The tornado threat will decrease after midnight.
Wind speeds and gusts will become more dangerous in the afternoon and throughout the night.
The storm surge threat increases through the day and continues overnight.
All conditions improve through the afternoon tomorrow.