TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Could Florida's presidential primary be the decider next year for the Republican nomination? The state's GOP Chair thinks so, that's despite a new poll suggesting it's former President Donald Trump's contest to lose.
New Florida Atlantic polling, out Monday morning, showed Trump retains a commanding lead with GOP voters in the Sunshine State. The survey found Trump has a twenty-point margin over Florida's Gov. Ron DeSantis, who remains a distant second.
It's actually an improvement for the governor. That same poll had him back seven additional points in April.
Later Monday, DeSantis defended his position in the race when asked about his polling deficit on Fox Business.
"Well, first, I think it's pretty clear that the media doesn't want me to be the candidate," said DeSantis. "At the end of the day, I think the fact that I'm the one targeted by the media, the left, even by the president of Mexico is because people know I will beat Biden."
In a follow-up segment, a MAGA spokeswoman suggested DeSantis needed to change his strategy.
"Quite frankly, the governor sounds a bit delusional," said Karoline Leavitt. "His campaign has been losing since the day that he announced that epic failure on Twitter Spaces."
DeSantis does have time to make gains. Florida's primary isn't until mid-March. If things tighten up, the Florida GOP chair thinks the Sunshine State could be decisive as a winner-take-all state with about 10% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.
"We might see where, you know, Trump/DeSantis-- they go state by state," said Chair Christian Ziegler. "They're battling it out, and then they get to Florida, and with such a lump of delegates that are gonna be awarded in Florida, it does really highlight the importance of Florida."
Ziegler also defended Florida's new loyalty pledge. It requires Republican candidates to support the eventual nominee and not run third-party in the general election. That could split the vote, benefiting Democrats.
"Look, we're tired of the Liz Cheneys and the Adam Kinzingers out there that get elected as Republicans and work against Republicans," said Ziegler. "We're tired of giving a stage and resources to help people that end up turning on us at the end."
Beyond Florida, the latest national trends also suggest a one-sided GOP primary. Election analysts at "Race to the WH" now predict DeSantis will fail to win a single state if other candidates stay in the race. If they drop out, he nabs just four.
The caveat, the primaries are still months away, and polls at this distance are not the best. Political experts tell us summer is a big reason why.
"People across the United States have other things going on," said Prof. Josh Scacco, USF Political Science. "They're celebrating holidays with families. They're on vacation. They're not picking up their phone to answer public opinion surveys."
Perhaps more engaged voters will change the GOP tides, which, for now, have Trump sailing in smoother waters than his GOP rivals.
