Florida Republicans are sweating Tuesday evening’s special elections, where results might be closer than they expected.
While a win for Democrats remains a long shot, they are proving competitive in two deeply conservative districts.
This matters because only five seats currently separate the Republican majority from the Democratic minority in the U.S. House. With four vacancies, including two in traditionally GOP-leaning districts, up for grabs in tonight’s elections, Republicans have some reason to be concerned.
WATCH Forrest Saunders covers special elections in Florida
Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, who likely didn’t anticipate much of a fight, are now in one. Heading into Election Night, Democrats have had solid turnout in early voting, raised millions more in campaign funds, and seen promising polling. It puts their candidates, Josh Weil and Gay Valimont, in a surprisingly competitive position for Congressional Districts 6 and 1, respectively—both deep-red turf.
“People need to get off their couch,” said Fine, a former state senator, Tuesday morning. “Take 5 minutes. It’s not a long ballot, and just go vote.”
Fine, clearly concerned, was spending his final hours urging voters in District 6 to turn out in full force. A strong turnout among Republicans is key to securing a victory.
“I think what’s happening is you have differences in intensity of support,” Fine explained. “Democrats are angry. There aren't many of them, but they’ll walk through fire to vote, whereas Republicans feel like everything’s good. Trump won. We need Republicans to have the same fear of what happens if we lose that Democrats have over what's going on. If we succeed in getting that message across, we’re going to win big tonight.”
President Trump carried both districts by 30 or more points in 2024. That’s why even the prospect of a single-digit loss has Democrats feeling hopeful.
“Democrats have never come closer than 16 points in Congressional District 6 and 26 points in District 1,” said Nikki Fried, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party.
Fried, whose party faced significant setbacks in the November 2024 election, expressed optimism about the shift in momentum.
“We’re already seeing the start of the Blue Wave,” Fried said. “We saw it in Pennsylvania last week, in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Wisconsin. We’re seeing it in Florida today, and it’s not just a blue wave—it’s an American wave. This is not who we are as Americans.”
However, Election Day voting returns seemed to be favoring Republicans, which could erase any Democratic gains by the end of the evening if their turnout doesn’t pick up.
Political analysts have cautioned that Democrats often overperform in special elections. They warn against drawing conclusions, even if Tuesday’s races end with narrow GOP victories.
“The only thing that would cause an earthquake in these races would be for Democrats to actually win,” said Dr. Susan MacManus, Professor Emeritus at the University of South Florida.
Republicans, meanwhile, have offered several reasons for any potential underperformance. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power explained that special elections are always tight.
“We had big wins and high turnout in November,” Power noted. “Getting people to turn out again just a couple months later is tough. Add to that some issues with expiring vote-by-mail ballots and the need for re-renewal—it creates challenges with the timing of these elections.”
Governor Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican, also weighed in on the situation, suggesting that any underperformance could be more about local candidates than broader national trends, specifically targeting Fine.
“I think it’s going to be more of a candidate-specific reason,” DeSantis said. “If there’s any underperformance, I don’t think it’s a referendum on the President. If the President were on the ballot, I think he’d win by 30 again.”
Polls in Florida close at 7 p.m. local time.
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