TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign made another stop in the Sunshine State on Wednesday. The focus, squarely on abortion access. Her team thinks it’s the key to keeping Florida in play this November, as Florida Republicans consider the effort manufactured momentum.
The stop in Jacksonville was day two of a 50-stop Harris/Walz bus trip across swing states leading up to election night. The VP’s surrogates took turns hitting Former President Donald Trump for appointing three US Supreme Court justices, tipping the court conservative and allowing for the unraveling of national abortion protections under Roe v. Wade. The group labeled Trump a danger to abortion access after the GOP nominee recently said he would vote against Amendment Four.
If passed, the initiative repeals the state’s current 6-week ban, taking Florida to viability. That’s about 24 weeks and there are health exceptions “as determined by a healthcare provider.” DNC Chair Jaime Harrison felt the former president’s position on Amendment Four would become a political liability in the ballot box.
“I think it's going to hurt him,” said Harrison. “Because I think overwhelmingly the people of Florida, not just Democrats, but Democrats, Independents, and Republicans are going to vote in for in support of Amendment 4 and reproductive health.”
Harrison told us the issue was a tipping point for Democrats. He believed it would help the party win up and down the ballot in Florida, not just at the top of the ticket.
“If you look at our rallies, if you look at events, look at the number of volunteers that we have just signed up in the last few weeks 40,000 new volunteers here in the State of Florida,” said Harrison. “Energy, momentum, hope, joy, all of that's on our side. We now just got to turn them out.”
Pundits think there is only a slim chance Florida is in play this cycle. Polling averages from 538 give Trump a more than 4-point margin in the state. Trump won the state in 2020 with a margin of just over three percentage points. Add to that, Republicans have out-raised and out-registered Florida Democrats by millions of dollars and more than a million voters. It also comes as the Harris Campaign and DNC have yet to make major investments in Florida.
The DNC chair didn’t affirm any future commitments when we spoke, but Florida Dem Chair Nikki Fried didn’t rule it out either.
“They are definitely having those hard conversations,” said Fried during a recent press call. “And it’s conversations that we are having with the team on a daily basis.”
Florida Republicans, meanwhile, have dismissed the ongoing momentum as a facade. That included the former state GOP chair turned state Senator Blaise Ingoglia (R-Spring Hill).
“They haven't done any big TV buys,” he said. “They're just basically trying to give the impression that they're going to be competitive here in the state of Florida, but they're not.”
Ingoglia told us this week the metrics remain in his party’s favor. He predicted an even wider margin for Trump given the large lead Republicans had amassed in voter registrations.
“Donald Trump is going to win the State by at least 10 points,” said Ingoglia. “The Democrats know that. So when they're out there showing about, you know, showing how many golf carts they have in a parade in the villages. It's just all a grift. They know what's going on.”
Polling has been mixed on Amendment Four. While it consistently has more than 50% support, it needs at least 60% to become law. Even if does, the question remains-- will the nonpartisan issue encourage partisan voting in November?
Back-to-back storm events brought record storm surge, rainfall and winds to the Tampa Bay region. The question some are asking now isn’t where people should rebuild, but where we should let nature regain control.
