TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Republicans look to have taken the lead in Florida’s early and mail-in voting. Some counts have the GOP ahead by more than 10,000 ballots. That’s not good news for Democrats, fighting for control of a US Senate seat, the Governor’s office, and to prevent a supermajority in the legislature.
The change wasn't all that surprising. Tuesday, Democrats had a lead of over 30,000 ballots. Wednesday— it was down to around 20,000. Thursday morning, under 2,000. Republicans look to have taken over later in the day. While the state had yet to update its numbers online, several outlets reported a GOP margin of more than 14,000 ballots around noon, Thursday. Analysts noted Republicans were showing up at early, in-person sites 2:1 when compared to Democrats.
“The red wave theme seems to be taking hold," said Dr. Susan MacManus, USF Professor Emerita. "Not just in Florida, but across the country.”
MacManus said it comes as a second blow to Democrats. That's after the GOP beat them in voter registrations this election cycle for the first time since at least 1972. The party exceeded its rivals by more than 300,000 voters. That “red wave” looking more and more likely.
“That’s the big story," said MacManus. "And it’s what Republicans have claimed all along that this would be a typical midterm election year, where traditionally the President's party loses seats.”
Republicans have been saying this for a while. High-ranking Florida lawmaker Rep. Danny Perez (R-Miami) told us recently the primary showed GOP voters were engaged.
“We are turning out," Perez said. "We are voting. We are showing up. People understand that the future of this country is right before us.”
Democrats still have time to catch up — but not much. They’ll likely need that lead to offset Election Day, which traditionally sees high GOP turnout. It may also need to be sizable. In 2018 a lead of 31,641 early and mail ballots wasn’t enough for Dems to secure the governor’s office.
Online— Democrats have started urging more turnout. Incoming House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell warned a supermajority was at stake in the legislature.
“The only way we’ll be able to fight back is if you vote,” she wrote. "Make a plan, and get to the polls!"
Her comments come Democrats in the state Senate tour Florida this week to prevent a supermajority in the upper chamber as well. Former Congressman Charlie Crist, who's seeking the governor's office, also doing a voting rally with President Joe Biden next week.
