FLORIDA — Forget the polls; Florida Democrats say they’re very much in this fight and will deliver major wins come Election Day. That’s as Republicans tell us the other party isn’t living in reality.
“I think we're going to win in Florida. I think President Trump's probably going to win by seven or eight points,” said Florida GOP Chair Evan Power. “If the turnout continues, it could be larger.”
Power told us Tuesday that he thinks everything is on course for a historic victory up and down the ballot: the US President, the Senate, and the House—even preserving one or both of the Republican supermajorities in the legislature.
Turnout of the GOP’s large voter registration advantage has been the goal. So far, Power said, so good.
“I think we're in a great spot,” said the chair. “If you look at what we've done, we narrowed the Democrats' vote-by-mail lead in half, and then some. Now that early voting is kicking off, we're dominating performance there. And we're probably going to finish [Tuesday], plus 12 in Republican turnout. We're happy with where we are.”
The GOP continues to lead early vote totals, outpacing Democrats in ballots cast. That’s true even in places like Miami-Dade, prompting some pundits to warn a Republican blowout could be coming. Others, however, warn predicting E-Day success from early voting is seldom accurate.
Recent state polling also shows Trump ahead with potentially historic margins—plus nine among Floridians in the latest from Florida Atlantic University.
So, why was Florida Democratic Chair Nikki Fried smiling? There are several reasons.
National polling, even one here in Florida, suggests early voters are breaking for Harris, despite party affiliations. Fried predicting a sizable silent Republican vote for Dems.
“We’re seeing a lot of people walking in ahead or behind their husbands — coming up to our people and saying — thumbs up,” said Fried. “We’re seeing those stories all over the State of Florida, and all over the country. I’m anticipating, at a minimum, 5-10%.”
Fried also said Democrats are just starting to show up at the polls. Their super voters, who reliably turn out, haven’t yet.
“We’ve got over three million really strong, consistent voters that have yet to vote,” said Fried. “We’re going out and chasing them. Republicans have no ground operation.”
Mix that with the still simmering joke controversy following Sunday’s Trump rally. Roast comedian Tony Hinchcliffe offered the audience a racist and lewd routine ahead of Trump’s speech at Madison Square Garden, including this jab at Puerto Ricans.
“I don’t know if you guys know this — but there is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now,” said Hinchcliffe. “I think it’s called Puerto Rico.”
Political experts told us, at the very least, it’s become a distraction for Trump in the final week and, at worst, potentially damaging. Puerto Ricans are a key voting block, with more than 1.1 million calling Florida home.
Ultimately, for Democrats, Election Night will be all about beating expectations. The presidency remains really tough — but that US Senate race could be close. Some of the House races are even closer. The party also feels bullish about knocking down at least one of the GOP supermajorities in the legislature.
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