TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Agriculture Secretary Nikki Fried held a four-point lead in a new University of North Florida (UNF) poll released late Monday. But the campaign of Rep. Charlie Crist said their own polling shows a completely different overall race.
According to the UNF poll, Fried leads Crist 47% to 43% among likely Democratic primary voters with another 6% either saying they don't know or refusing to answer. Fried's lead is outside the poll's 3.4% margin of error.
An earlier poll from UNF found Fried trailing Crist by eight points.
“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.”
While this is good news for the Fried campaign just one week before the primary, the Crist campaign said not so fast.
According to an internal poll from Change Research, Crist holds a 10-point lead over Fried, 47%-37%, with 16% saying they are undecided or refusing to answer. The Crist poll also reported he leads among those who have already voted by a 52-35% margin.
The internal Crist campaign poll had a margin of error of 4.2%.
With dueling polling showing two different leaders, RealClearPolitics shows that of the polls it's tracked since February, Crist has had a comfortable lead over Fried until the UNF poll was released.
Fried or Crist will face Governor Ron DeSantis in the November general election, where Democratic turnout could be greater than expected, according to the UNF poll. And that increased turnout could be driven by abortion.
“Without the protections of Roe, the likelihood of a strict or outright ban on abortion being introduced in Florida increases dramatically, and this looks to be mobilizing Democrats to the polls—78% said the decision made them more likely to vote in November,” noted Binder. “But among Republicans, most (54%) said they are at least somewhat supportive of an outright ban.”
