TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Is Florida in play, or are Florida Democrats just playing politics? That continues to be the question heading into November.
It was “Florida, Florida, Florida” that decided the fate of the presidency in 2000. But since then, many pundits think the swing has gone out of this swing state.
Former President Donald Trump nabbed the now 30 electoral votes for the last two cycles — and many think he’s poised to do so again.
But on Tuesday, Democratic National Committee Chair Jamie Harrison said that’s not happening.
“Florida is in play,” said Harrison in an exclusive interview. “That's why I am here right now.”
Harrison was emphatic that despite what you might think, Dems have a serious shot in Florida. He insisted that the national party was committing to a competitive race and that the beleaguered state party had a shot at success up and down the ballot.
“We're opening offices. I feel good about the direction that we're going,” said the national chair. “And I believe that a November of this year, once again, we're going to be saying Florida, Florida, Florida.”
His optimism was buoyed by this last week’s announcement that Florida Democrats had fielded candidates for every legislative seat this year. It’s a first for the state party in at least 30 years. Something the state chair, Nikki Fried, felt could drive turnout.
“One-third of our state at this point is independent,” said Fried. “And they don't have a Democrat to go out to vote for. They're more likely to stay home, which means that their say of where our state is and where it's going becomes muted.”
Turnout trouble is one of the biggest reasons Democrats lost big in 2022. The GOP’s policies and messages resonated with Floridians. Republicans nabbing super majorities in the legislature and securing a clean sweep of the Florida Cabinet, including the governor’s office.
Since then, Florida Democrats have been in rebuild mode. Focused, they’ve said, on voter registration, ground game, and maybe getting a boost from abortion protections on this year’s ballot.
“Don’t mess with the women of America,” said President Joe Biden during an April campaign stop in Tampa.
Biden has tried to capitalize on the access issue too. His event in Hillsborough County on April 23 was all about reproductive rights and rebuffing Florida’s six-week abortion ban, which took effect in May of this year. That’s as the Biden-Harris re-election team keeps saying Florida is winnable and that it will invest here.
At the moment, however, states like Wisconsin seem to be getting more attention. The Biden-Harris Campaign has 48 campaign offices there, 32 of which are in counties won by Trump. Compare that to Florida. Three are open, with 11 more expected by the end of the summer.
“Well, we are assessing every state to figure out what we need in those individual states,” said DNC Chair Harrison.
He went on to say offices would grow “exponentially” as needed but didn’t offer hard numbers or investment plans.
“I have a good friend who often says this,” said the national chair. “He says you know when people say you don't matter that you don't count, you teach them that they don't know how to count.”
To Florida Republicans, it’s all rhetoric.
“Florida is a red state,” said Evan Power, Florida GOP chair. “It’s going to be a red state, and we’re going to win in November. We’re going to win big.”
Power told us Tuesday he thinks Democrats are just trying to push Republicans to spend here. The Sunshine State, he said, was fool’s gold for them, and the long list of candidates they’ve fielded future “participation trophies.”
“In 2020— Democrats had a 100,000 voter advantage,” said Power. “We’re looking at a million voter advantage by the time we go vote in November. If you look at the intensity out there— people are becoming Republican at a strikingly high rate, and people are turning out and voting Republican at a higher rate.”
Power also said a statewide get-out-the-vote effort is in the works and dared Democrats to spend here. A bet Fried and Harrison, at the very least, sounded likely to call.
“The stars are aligning, the planets are aligning, and Florida, Florida, Florida is going to be in that mix,” said Harrison.“And it's going to be one of the states that people all across the country will be watching very closely in November.”
In the end — is Florida in play? That’s really up to the voter.
One very important thing to keep in mind here is that even with that, neither party has an outright majority here. As it always has in Florida, this race will be about turnout— but also who can capture more independents. That will ultimately be what tips the scales and decides the true status of the Sunshine State’s swing state status.
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