TAMPA, Fla. — The estimated cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will be 20% higher than a year ago, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The AFBF’s analysis looks at the cost of Thanksgiving staples, such as turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, and coffee and milk.
The AFBF said providing enough food for 10 people with plenty of leftovers would cost $64.05 this year, up from $53.31 a year ago and $46.90 from 2020.
Nearly every Thanksgiving staple is over 10 percent more expensive than a year ago. The largest increase was for the price of stuffing mix, which saw a 69% increase. The cost of turkey increased 21% in the last year.
The only Thanksgiving staple that did not have a price increase from last year was cranberries, which saw a 14% decline.
Sylvia Slezak still has some Thanksgiving shopping to check off her list, but when asked what the sticker shock looks like compared to years past, she put it plainly.
“Heart wrenching. Mind blowing," said Slezak.
It's the reality for many shoppers recently, especially moving into the holiday season.
“My entire, for the past year, my budget, has been upped $150 a week, and that’s not even changing what I would get," said Slezak.
While Thanksgiving dinners will be 20% more expensive than a year ago, average wages have only increased 4.7% in the last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“General inflation slashing the purchasing power of consumers is a significant factor contributing to the increase in average cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner,” said AFBF chief economist Roger Cryan. "General inflation has been running 7% to 9% in recent months, while the most recent Consumer Price Index report for food consumed at home reveals a 12% increase over the past year.”
Cryan blamed food shortages, rising costs for farmers, and the war in Ukraine for reasons the price of a Thanksgiving dinner has jumped.
Here are the average prices of items, according to the Farm Bureau:
- 16-pound turkey: $28.96 or $1.81 per pound (up 21%)
- 14-ounce bag of cubed stuffing mix: $3.88 (up 69%)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.68 (up 26%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $2.24 (up 26%)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.90 (up 23%)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.73 (up 22%)
- Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $4.13 (up 20%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.28 (up 18%)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.84 (up 16%)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.96 (up 11%)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): 88 cents (up 8%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.57 (down 14%)
While customers see those increased prices this Thanksgiving, local grocery stores are also dealing with those elevated expenses as they stock their shelves.
“I feel like we’ve kind of hit the peak, believe it or not, but without a doubt, your Thanksgiving dinner’s going to be more expensive than last years," Denis Eymann, the grocery manager for Nature's Food Patch in Clearwater and Dunedin.
Eymann thinks prices are going to remain higher than they were the year before but that the speed of the increases have slowed down.
“We’re working very closely with the brands to provide the best prices possible that we can get this year, and I see a lot of brands very eager to provide good deals to consumers," said Eymann. "I think we’re turning a corner."
While savvy shoppers wait for relief, some people are still determined to make this Thanksgiving priceless.
“It’s not the prices, and it’s not what you go through," said Slezak. "It’s who you’re spending your time with.”
The AFBF uses data from volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.
The data found those in the West will likely pay more for their meals than those in the South. The Western U.S. would expect to pay $71.37, while those in the South would pay $58.42 for the same 10-person meal.
Here is a year-by-year breakdown of how much the same Thanksgiving meal has cost since 2015:
2015: $50.11
2016: $49.87
2017: $49.12
2018: $48.90
2019: $48.91
2020: $46.90
2021: $53.31
2022: $64.05
