FORT COLLINS, Colo — The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season isn’t here yet, but is already shaping up to be one for the books, with more hurricanes and named storms predicted in a pre-season forecast from Colorado State University than ever before.
According to the university's Atlantic hurricane season forecast, released Thursday, June through November could see 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five Category 3 or higher “major” hurricanes.
With the caveat that early outlooks aren’t set in stone given the “considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak” of the season, it’s still an ill omen for a particularly active storm season.
And, researchers say they have “above-normal confidence” for this April’s predictions.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the group said in a news release.
On average, the Atlantic season brings 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes, three of them major. Last hurricane season had 20 named storms including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The only other Colorado State outlooks to predict this many hurricanes were mid-season forecasts in August 2005 and 2020 – which ended up being the two most-active Atlantic seasons on record.
The researchers will issue updates to the forecast on June 11, July 9 and August 6.
