FT. MYERS BEACH, Fla. — Hurricane Ian was one of Florida’s deadliest storms in recent memory, claiming more than 100 lives in 19 counties.
The main reason most of the people died was that they failed to evacuate, despite mandatory evacuation orders issued by Lee County Emergency Management officials more than 24 hours before the storm.
Psychologists have studied for years what makes people decide to stay behind, despite stern warnings of potential danger and death.
They have identified multiple factors — from ignorance about the power of the storms to peer pressure to wanting to protect their homes from looters in the aftermath of a hurricane.
Mitch Pacyna decided to stay
“Surge is coming in,” Ft. Myers Beach resident Mitch Pacyna said, narrating a video he shot with his cell phone on the morning of September 28.
He and multiple neighbors decided to ride out the storm.
In a video he posted on Facebook, a meteorologist appears on his television, warning of a potential 15-foot storm surge for Ft. Myers Beach.
“Oh my God! Wrong decision!” Pacyna said in a video he posted at 10:56 that morning, as water covered his front yard.
Multiple factors influence the decision not to evacuate
“Past experience predicts who is likely to evacuate and who is less likely to evacuate,” said Dr. Cara Cuite, a Rutgers University psychologist who studies the psychological factors that affect people’s decision to evacuate during hurricanes.
One study involved New Jersey residents, who stayed in their homes during Hurricane Sandy, which decimated the coastline throughout the Northeast.
Cuite said some who choose to stay have never experienced a hurricane before and don’t know what to expect.
She said these residents often listen to people they know, rather than the local officials who have actual knowledge about the track and severity of storms.
“A lot of times we rely on our neighbors and what is everyone else doing… I’ll just do what they do. So you end up having entire pockets or areas of people who just stay put because they decide ‘we’ll ride it out together’ or ‘we’ll be fine’ or ‘we’ll support each other,’” Cuite said.
Cuite said longtime residents who have weathered multiple storms can also experience a phenomenon often nicknamed “disaster amnesia” …or forgetting how devastating past storms have been.
She said for about a year after a disaster, the devastation is fresh on people’s minds, so they tend to heed the warnings of local officials.
But Cuite said that sense of caution is often short-lived.
“Over time, that effect fades. People sort of forget. Memories fade and you don’t see that same vigilance,” Cuite said.
As Hurricane Ian showed, that can lead to disaster.
Mitch Pacyna had been through multiple storms during 16 years on Ft. Myers Beach, but Hurricane Ian would be his last.
“We’re terrified!”
By 12:24 p.m. on September 28, Pacyna realized he was in bad trouble.
“This ain’t letting up yet. If it gets a little higher, we may have to go on the roof,” he said in a video he posted on Facebook.
An hour later, he posted “OK,, (sic) we’re terrified!”
That would be his final post.
Pacyna, who couldn’t swim, drowned when the storm surge split his house apart.
His body was found days later.
Cuite said hurricanes are easier to prepare for than other natural disasters like tornados and earthquakes because we can see them coming days in advance.
She said it’s important for people to trust the advice of local officials — not neighbors — when it comes to staying safe.
“They want to keep you safe. They’re there to help, have resources to help people evacuate and if they tell you that you should evacuate, you should do it,” Cuite said.
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