TAMPA, Fla. — If you needed a reminder from Mother Nature that it's still winter across the Tampa Bay region, it's about to come in two waves.
Starting Friday, temperatures will be in the 60s, with only Sunday and Monday forecasted to have temps in the 70s. Lows at night, starting Thursday night, will dip into the mid-40s.
But that's just the first shot of cold air for the region; the next big cold air blast is possible next weekend.
ABC Action News Meteorologist Greg Dee has been tracking the developing weather pattern and gave this analysis.
"As far as the weekend of Jan 12, Disney Marathon Weekend in Orlando, the GFS & the EURO both agree that cold air will come down into the Great Lakes down to the Ohio River Valley that weekend. The question & big difference between them is how far south does it go?
First, the GFS: This model brings through a low pressure out of the Gulf across Florida the Thu/Fri before (around Jan 10). It’s not tropical. Tropical systems are not possible this time of year. The water is too cold. It’s just a low pressure that forms in the Gulf. It’ll bring rain. The storm is out of the picture by Saturday & although the GFS has a cool down behind it, it’s definitely not as intense or as far south as the EURO. The GFS has temperatures to 32ºF as far south as Gainesville on the morning of Sunday, Jan 12, with upper 30s down to about DeSoto County. Cold, but not record-setting or that threatening for central Florida.
The EURO, on the other hand, brings the cold air MUCH farther south. It has lows in the 10s & 20s all across the southeast all the way down to the Gulf Coast in the Florida Panhandle. The EURO brings temperatures of 32ºF or lower all the way down to Charlotte counties & even interior counties south of Lake Okeechobee. This means 20s for much of central Florida on the morning of Jan 12 & maybe even the morning of Jan 13.
Obviously a much bigger concern as you would talking about frosts & freezes for much of Florida. A frost or freeze in north Florida in Jan is not unusual. But once you get down to the I-4 corridor & points south, frosts & freezes here only occur every 2-4 years on average. The EURO has highs only in the 40s across central Florida on Sunday, Jan 12, making for a VERY cold Disney Full Marathon that day.
The EURO is also painting in some moisture over the Gulf as cold air moves over warm ocean waters. This could result in clouds & showers along the coast. These could mix with or even just plain change to some sort of frozen precipitation away from the coast. That would definitely be something worth watching.
As far as the first two days of Disney Marathon Weekend (Thu/Fri), those could likely be cool too, but not extreme. Maybe highs in the low 60s? We’re still a little over a week away from all of this, so the data is unclear."
A frustrated Zephyrhills homeowner still has flooded yard months after Hurricane Milton.
