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Health officials expect new COVID-19 winter surge to peak around end of January

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TAMPA, Fla. — “Test positivity is up, hospitalizations are up,” said Dr. Jill Roberts, associate professor for the USF College of Public Health.

The CDC is tracking those COVID-19 increases across the board.

The most recent data shows that even deaths from the virus are up at least 10% nationally.

Health officials believe the numbers are likely higher than that as we wait for more data to come in after the holidays.

Locally, doctors are seeing the uptick in spread too.

“It’s difficult to track and trend the numbers, but we are still seeing and dealing with it,” said Dr. Raj P. Kotak, Chief Medical Officer at AdventHealth Carrollwood.

This comes as the new variant, JN.1, is making up about 44.2% of new COVID-19 cases, according to the latest numbers from the CDC.

In Tampa Bay, while doctors are already seeing numbers go up, they predict there will be an even bigger uptick in cases by the end of this week.

“We are going to see a surge of folks, perhaps not as large as we’ve seen in the past, I hope, but at the same time, we do expect that those numbers are going to increase with that,” said Kotak.

Some experts believe that because cases were already increasing before the holidays, they may not peak until the end of the month or in early February.

“The more people we start with, the more people that have it from the start, the more it peaks. It goes up, up, up, up, up,” said Roberts.

All of this indicates we’re in a new winter surge, and in the meantime, doctors recommend going back to the basics to limit spread.

“Washing your hands, using sanitizer, before you meet with people, after you meet with people or touching high risk areas or high frequently touched areas,” said Kotak.

Doctors are also encouraging people to get vaccinated if they haven’t already, avoid large crowds right now, and wear a mask.

“I am going to be wearing a mask when I’m going into groups where I’m going to be with a thousand of my closet friends like in concerts and perhaps going to church and places like that,” said Dr. Thomas Unnasch, researcher and public health expert.