TAMPA, Fla. — As Florida continues to see a surge in COVID-19 cases from the delta variant, the latest forecast from the Mayo Clinic offers up a sobering look at what is likely coming for the state just one day before school starts.
According to the Mayo Clinic’s COVID-19 forecast tool, almost all of Florida will have cases above 100 per 100,000 and most of the counties around Tampa will be reporting more than 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day.
(Note: The forecast numbers have an upper and lower range. The numbers reported here are the average of the range.)
Statewide, the Mayo Clinic forecast tool said Florida will be reporting a seven-day rolling average of 49,398 cases of COVID-19 per day by August 9, a 132% increase from the current numbers. The overall range showed Florida could be reporting just 31,357 cases on the low end or 83,548 on the high end.
Looking at the county level, the numbers show a rapidly spreading disease. Hillsborough County is expected to be reporting 3,744 new cases of COVID-19 daily and will have 277 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000. If those numbers prove accurate, Hillsborough will see an increase in daily cases and per 100,000 cases of 152% from today’s numbers. While that’s high, other counties will see an even larger jump.
The Mayo Clinic forecast shows Pinellas County reporting 2,551 new COVID cases by August 9, an increase of 228% from today; while also reporting 268 cases per 100,000, an increase of 235% in two weeks.
Manatee County currently has just 267 new cases of COVID per day, but the forecast for August 9 would see the county increase to 669 cases (an increase of 162%), and per 100,000 cases jump from 73 today to 112 by August 9, a 53% increase. Meantime, Polk County will go from 666 new COVID-19 cases per day to 1,651 cases a day, a 148% increase while cases per 100,000 will increase 149% from 102 to 254.
But Pasco County may have the toughest road ahead the next couple of weeks. According to the Mayo Clinic, Pasco currently averages 475 new cases of COVID-19 per day and has 95 cases per 100,00 people. The forecast would see Pasco’s new cases rise 253% to 1,677 per day and the per 100,000 people number skyrocket 254% to 336.
While the state looked like it was ready to turn the page on COVID-19 a few months ago as Governor Ron DeSantis banned future restrictions for COVID-19; the virus fueling the pandemic continues to show no signs of letting up its grip on the state of Florida.