TAMPA, Fla. — President Truman famously said, “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses their job. It’s a depression when you lose yours.”
If you go by the latest numbers, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy. The GDP is crushing expectations, the stock market is trading at a record high, inflation is down, wages are up, and Friday's job numbers far exceeded anyone's expectations.
But when you talk to working people, the numbers simply don’t pay the bills.
“I don't want to swear. But it's not that good at all,” said Tom McGovern, a Tampa Bay area resident.
He continued, “Going in to get three bags of groceries at the grocery store cost over $100 or more. My rent went up $200 a month. He wanted to raise it more, and I told them I was going to move out if they do that. So, they raised it 200 bucks. They lived there for 17 years, the same rent. Now it's different. If you pay your bills and survive, that's all you could do. When is it going to change? Is it going to change?”
In some ways, the answer to these questions is as unsatisfying as it is promising. By all measures, the U.S. economy is, in fact, strong. But why are there facts about the economy not connecting with how people feel?
“It's like a bullwhip effect. So what happens just right now does not immediately impact you. But it impacts you down the way like a couple of months, or like six months later,” explained Seckin Ozkul, a USF professor.
ABC Action News anchor Paul LaGrone asked Ozkul: “When I go out and talk to people, they tell me look, I can't buy a house, or my rent goes up, or groceries are insane. And that's what they feel. Whether the economic facts are there. It's like we're talking about two different realities because people are telling me that's great, but I'm not feeling that at home.”
Ozkul replied, “It's going to take some time for us to see the implement these implications is indicators that are showing positive to really take into effect. So, we are hopeful that going into 2024. Towards the middle of the year, we're going to be actually seeing the impacts of a betterment in our economy.”
Ozkul said one developing bright spot is that U.S. and China relations have improved.
“Thankfully, the two presidents, President Biden and President Xi, back in November, right before APEC, they met, and they were able to really soften the tensions between US and China. We are seeing those effects getting, you know, back to normal, which is very good news, which also affects, of course, the inflation coming down, and also the cost coming down, hopefully in 2024,” said Ozkul.
LaGrone then said, “The Middle East, China, Russia, Ukraine, but all the spots in the world, the tentacles of which come back to the United States, economically, and people feel that."
Ozkul replied, “We are living in the global world right now. And really, a lot of nations are tied at the hip. And that definitely has an impact, again, we talk about decoupling possible to be China. Can you do it? Possibly, but how much would that cost? How much is the general public willing to pay for a certain item that they're paying $2 for right now.”
But Ozkul said no matter what the rest of 2024 brings politically, the U.S. has managed to avoid the recession so many had feared.
